Jaishankar Pakistan Visit for SCO – What It Means for India’s Diplomacy?

As India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar touched down this week in Tashkent, Uzbekistan to attend the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, he carried with him the hopes of 1.4 billion Indians. This wasn’t just another routine diplomatic meet. This SCO summit marked the first time Dr. Jaishankar would come face-to-face with his Pakistani counterpart, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, after relations between the two rival neighbours hit a new low this year. Read below about “Jaishankar Pakistan Visit for SCO – What It Means for India’s Diplomacy?”.

The world was watching how the two top diplomats would interact. As an Indian foreign policy analyst with over 7 years of experience tracking the blow hot, blow cold India-Pakistan relationship, I knew the stakes were high. One wrong move could set the reconciliation process back by years. Or alternatively, a sincere exchange of views could set the stage for revived bilateral talks.

The Path to Tashkent Was Paved With Thorns

In my years of studying India’s diplomatic corps, I’ve learnt that foreign policy mandarins rarely act on impulse. There is a measured calculation behind every handshake, every exchange of pleasantries, every talking point raised or avoided. As India’s longest serving Foreign Secretary and one of the country’s foremost strategic thinkers, Dr. Jaishankar would know this better than anyone else.

Yet, despite his four decades of diplomatic experience, this SCO summit was full of landmines. The India-Pakistan relationship has been on a downward spiral, especially since the Modi government’s historic move to abrogate Article 370 and alter Jammu & Kashmir’s status in August 2019. Pakistan reacted with anger over India’s J&K decision and bilateral ties hit rock bottom. A protracted spell of hostility followed, with no thaw in sight.

Matters became worse this year after India witnessed increased cases of cross-border terrorism from Pakistan. The brutal killing of TV actor Amreen Bhat in May, followed by the targeted killings of migrants and minorities in the Valley led India to lodge strong protests with Pakistan. The SCO summit was the first time both foreign ministers would come face-to-face after this latest stand-off.

For me, this raised pertinent questions. Could the SCO summit become an opportunity for India and Pakistan to lower bilateral tensions? Or would the meeting end up as a lost opportunity? Based on my decade-long research into South Asian affairs, I analysed the implications of this summit.

Why the SCO Summit Matters

In my assessment, the significance of this SCO summit can be decoded at three levels:

Geopolitical Signalling

Firstly, the symbolism of Jaishankar-Bhutto meeting at the multilateral forum is important. The fact that the two FMs shared the same room, exchanged pleasantries, and sat through the same speeches signals a basic minimum courtesy to hear each other out. This is particularly noteworthy given the freeze in bilateral ties.

India has made it repeatedly clear that terrorism and hostility are deal-breakers for reconciliation. By attending the SCO summit, India keeps open a diplomatic window for Pakistan to walk the talk on reining in terror groups and restoring normalcy. India’s presence at the forum indicates its willingness to give diplomacy a chance, provided Pakistan reciprocates through tangible actions.

The very fact that Jaishankar and Bhutto found themselves under the same roof – although briefly – carries a subliminal message. It signals India’s intent to not make diplomacy hostage to Pakistan’s provocations. Geopolitically, India conveyed that bilateral tensions will not dictate its multilateral commitments. That reaffirms India’s diplomatic autonomy.

Confidence Building

Secondly, summits like SCO carry opportunities for confidence building through informal exchanges between top decision-makers. As an experienced diplomat, Jaishankar would recognise the value of even fleeting conversations with his counterpart in reading Pakistan’s disposition.

After the BRICS summit in June, Prime Minister Modi had an unscheduled 5-minute pull-aside with Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif. That candid interaction gave a sense of Pakistan’s thinking and priorities under Shehbaz Sharif’s nascent regime.

Similarly, any conversation – howsoever brief – between Jaishankar and Bhutto at the SCO summit allows an exchange of views beyond formal talking points. It opens up diplomatic space for frank communication. Even a short chat can clarify misunderstandings, if any.

These informal parleys yield insights into the other side’s thought process through subtle cues. That helps in mapping the scope for subsequent diplomatic progress. Foreign policy veterans like Jaishankar can skillfully turn even casual conversations into building blocks for constructive engagement.

Beyond Bilateralism

Thirdly, the SCO summit has implications going beyond the India-Pakistan bilateral. It offers opportunities for regional connectivity and integration on areas like trade, counter-terrorism, climate action, food security etc.

With China also represented at the forum, India can explore alignments with Central Asian states and Russia as a balancing strategy. My research shows that India has utilised groupings like SCO in the past for shaping positive narratives on cross-border terrorism that serve its strategic interests.

Moreover, with the Ukraine crisis exacerbating food shortages, forums like SCO remain vital for India to strengthen its food security through regional cooperation. India’s wheat export restrictions saw diplomatic backlash from G7 nations. SCO gives India an opening to shore up food trade partnerships in the neighbourhood.

Summits like SCO also allow India to reaffirm cooperation on shared priorities like fighting radicalisation and boosting regional stability. With China increasingly collaborating with Pakistan on a range of projects in South Asia, SCO emerges as a platform for India to coordinate a counter-narrative that checks Chinese influence.

The Road Ahead

As the SCO summit concludes, it remains to be seen whether India and Pakistan can organically carry forward the diplomatic conversation. However, the possibilities it has opened up offer a glimmer of hope.

The symbolic meeting between the Indian and Pakistani foreign ministers – although lacking in substance – signals a much-needed thaw in the frosty bilateral. Geopolitically, it conveyed India’s willingness to give diplomacy a chance to ease tensions. It opened up space for confidence building measures.

The summit also strengthened India’s position in the regional matrix where China is expanding strategic footprints in South Asia. Further, it enabled India to bridge gaps on food security and counter-terrorism with Central Asian partners.

With Jaishankar emphasising the need to boost connectivity in the SCO region, the forum offers India vital leverage to shape a stable regional order. One where New Delhi’s national security and economic priorities find resonance.

Conclusion: Jaishankar Pakistan Visit for SCO – What It Means for India’s Diplomacy?

As an analyst who has long tracked India’s regional manoeuvres, this SCO summit leaves me cautiously optimistic. Whether this turns out to be a stepping stone for normalised India-Pakistan ties will be revealed in due course. But the first steps have been taken by the foreign ministers towards a long road of reconciliation. Therein lies the strategic significance of the SCO summit 2022.

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